Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5 WW 125 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO 181425Z - 182200Z AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40ENE MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/ - 40SSE HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /42NNW PXV - 41N ELD/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040. LAT...LON 38528651 33919126 33919440 38528984 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU5.
Watch 125 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 125 VALID 181845Z - 181940Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PBF TO 30 NNE LIT TO 25 NNW ARG TO 10 SW SLO. ..MARSH..04/18/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-021-025-031-035-037-041-043-055-063-067-069-075-077- 079-085-093-095-107-111-117-121-123-145-147-181940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS WHITE WOODRUFF $$ ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON $$ INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK $$ KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER $$ MOC017-023-031-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-181940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 125 VALID 181710Z - 181840Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HOT TO 35 NNW LIT TO 35 SSE UNO TO 35 SSW FAM TO 20 WSW SLO. ..LEITMAN..04/18/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-053-055- 063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-123- 125-135-145-147-181840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GRANT GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE SHARP WHITE WOODRUFF $$ ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON $$ INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK $$ KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER $$ MOC017-023-031-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-181840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 125 VALID 181625Z - 181740Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE TXK TO 20 ENE RUE TO 35 W POF TO 10 WNW FAM. ..LEITMAN..04/18/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045- 051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-105- 107-111-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-145-147-181740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE SHARP STONE WHITE WOODRUFF $$ ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON $$ INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK $$ KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER $$ MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-207-223- 181740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 125 VALID 181525Z - 181640Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/18/13 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043- 045-049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095- 097-103-105-107-109-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-141-145- 147-149-181640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POINSETT POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL $$ ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON $$ INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK $$ KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL UNION WEBSTER $$ MOC017-023-031-035-069-091-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-203-207- 223-181640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER DUNKLIN HOWELL MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD WAYNE $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$
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Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes | Mod (60%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events | Mod (60%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events | Low (10%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches | Low ( |
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events | High (80%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0125.html
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